Extended Tightness in Global Antimony Supply-Demand To Lift Price Center

Extended Tightness in Global Antimony Supply-Demand To Lift Price Center

On February 19, the Chinese Research Institute pointed out that, in the long term, the global antimony supply-demand imbalance is set to continue, with the antimony price center expected to rise. Driven by the continuous growth in newly installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity and the increasing penetration rate of double-glass modules, the demand for antimony in PV glass is expected to remain on an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the implementation of "trade-in" policies is likely to boost demand for electrical equipment, thereby driving up the consumption of antimony in the flame retardant sector. Against the backdrop of relatively rigid global antimony ore supply, the antimony supply-demand deficit is projected to reach -0.9, -1.3, -1.0, and -1.4 ten-thousand tons in 2024–2027, accounting for -6%, -8%, -6%, and -9% of demand respectively. The supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, which will likely push the antimony price center upward.

I. Antimony: Improving supply-demand balance expected to narrow the domestic-international price gap, with domestic antimony prices set to rise

Since China's announcement of export controls on antimony-related items on August 15, 2024, antimony exports have been temporarily affected, leading to a significant divergence between domestic and international antimony prices. According to Asian Metal and BCI, as of February 14, the domestic and MB antimony ingot prices have fluctuated by -10% and +100% respectively compared to the prices on August 15, 2024.

Since February, improved exports combined with the arrival of the peak season have driven up overall demand, while the contraction of imported ore has curbed domestic antimony ingot production, triggering the second round of domestic antimony price increases.

II. Recent Surge in Domestic Antimony Prices — Analysis of China's Antimony Market

1.International Antimony Prices Rise

On February 19, 2025, international antimony ingot prices continued to increase as follows:

• Antimony Ingot (99.65%): Prices ranged from $49,050 to $50,200 per ton, up by 2.3% compared to February 12 (prices of $46,000-$47,500 per ton).

• Low-Bismuth Antimony Ingot: Prices also ranged from $49,050 to $50,200 per ton, up by 2.3% compared to February 12 (prices of $46,000-$47,500 per ton).

2.Domestic Antimony Prices Rise

On February 20, 2025, domestic antimony product prices were quoted as follows:

• Antimony Concentrate (50%): Ranged from CNY 124,000 to CNY 126,000 per metal ton, up by CNY 2,000 per metal ton compared to February 10.

• Antimony Ingot (99.65%): Ranged from CNY 147,000 to CNY 149,000 per ton, up by CNY 3,000 per ton compared to February 10.

• Antimony Trioxide (99.5%): Ranged from CNY 130,000 to CNY 132,000 per ton, up by CNY 2,000 per ton compared to February 10.

• Antimony Ingot (99.65%) Export Quote: Ranged from $25,300 to $25,600 per ton.

• Antimony Trioxide (99.5%) Export Quote: Ranged from $21,800 to $22,100 per ton, up by $500 per ton compared to February 10.

Since the resumption of work after the Spring Festival, domestic antimony prices have surged by over CNY 5,000 per ton. Recently, upstream smelters in China have increasingly shown reluctance to sell, with a growing bullish sentiment, leading to a tightening supply of antimony ingots. Domestic antimony trioxide producers are facing increased difficulties in sourcing raw materials, and the overall supply of antimony products in the market has contracted, driving up prices.

III. Recovery of Downstream Demand and Improvement in Exports

The recovery of downstream demand, combined with improved exports, is expected to boost overall demand, as follows:

1. Improved Exports: The export situation of domestic antimony products has improved, and domestic manufacturers' expectations for price increases in domestic antimony products have shifted from weak to strong.

2. Recovery of Traditional Demand: The implementation of trade-in policies and the gradual entry into the peak season for upstream raw material procurement in the home appliance sector are expected to drive growth in antimony demand for flame retardants.

3. Increased Demand for Photovoltaic Glass: The slowdown in the cold repair of photovoltaic glass production lines and the stabilization of daily melting volumes after industry production cuts are expected to support a gradual recovery in demand for sodium antimonate from photovoltaic glass manufacturers, especially as downstream module manufacturers increase their operating rates in March.

4. Export Recovery: According to customs data, China exported 776 tons and 1,571 tons of antimony trioxide in November and December 2024, respectively, with month-on-month growth rates of 1,748% and 102%. This level is about 50% of the average monthly export volume before export controls.

IV. Domestic-International Price Spread and Contraction of Imported Ore

The high domestic-international price spread has increased the cost of imported ore, while the contraction of imported ore has suppressed domestic antimony ingot production, pushing the domestic antimony industry into a destocking and price-increasing cycle, as follows:

1. Contraction of Imported Ore: According to customs data, China imported 2,141 physical tons of antimony ore from overseas in December 2024, a month-on-month decrease of 63%.

2. Decreased Domestic Antimony Ingot Production: According to data from Asian Metal, China's antimony ingot production in January 2025 was 3,650 tons, down 48% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month. Domestic smelters' antimony ingot inventory was 1,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7%, reaching a historically low level.

V. Long-Term Outlook

In the short term, domestic antimony prices in China are expected to remain strong with some volatility. In the long run, the global antimony supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist, supporting an upward shift in the price center. Driven by the continuous growth in new photovoltaic installations and the increasing penetration rate of double-glass modules, the demand for antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to keep rising. The implementation of trade-in policies is also likely to boost demand for electrical equipment, thereby increasing antimony consumption in the flame retardant sector. Against the backdrop of relatively rigid global antimony ore supply, supply-demand deficits are projected to continue from 2024 to 2027, maintaining a tight market and supporting higher antimony prices.

VI. Risk Warnings

1. Over-Performance of Overseas Supply: An increase in overseas antimony ore supply could potentially ease the domestic supply shortage.

2. Under-Performance of Export Improvement: Export control policies may continue to affect exports, maintaining a significant domestic-international price gap.

3. Unexpected Substitution in Downstream Demand: New types of flame retardants or alternative materials could reduce the demand for antimony.

In conclusion, the tight global antimony supply-demand situation will continue to support upward price trends. Meanwhile, in China, antimony prices are expected to keep rising under the dual influence of export controls and the recovery of downstream demand.

VII. Conclusion

Faced with the challenges of supply shortages and soaring prices of antimony trioxide, Guangzhou YINSU Flame Retardant Company actively invested in research and development, successfully launching a variety of antimony trioxide substitutes and high-cost-performance bromo-antimony masterbatches among other flame retardant products. These innovative products not only effectively replace traditional antimony trioxide in performance but also meet higher environmental standards and cost-efficiency, offering customers a new and effective flame retardant solution.

For example, YINSU's composite antimony flame retardant can fully replace antimony trioxide, providing similar synergistic activity and featuring smoke suppression, while being considered a more environmentally friendly option. Additionally, YINSU has introduced bromo-antimony flame retardant masterbatches, suitable for various flame-retardant applications, such as ABS and HIPS products. The development of these products not only addresses the supply shortage of antimony trioxide but also provides more competitive options in the flame retardant market.