Chemical raw materials overcapacity, new materials industry ushered in a good opportunity.

Chemical raw materials overcapacity, new materials industry ushered in a good opportunity.

With the peak of the capacity to put, the basic chemical raw materials overcapacity trend is obvious, and the new energy industry's rapid development, for the development of new chemical materials to bring new opportunities, the relevant capacity in the past two years has increased rapidly.

Basic chemical raw materials overcapacity warning

China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation data show that in 2022 China's oil refining capacity reached 920 million tons / year, ethylene production capacity reached 46.75 million tons / year, for the first time to jump to the top of the world. In the first half of this year, ethylene production increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and consumption increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Ethylene, as the core of the petrochemical industry, and its derivatives account for more than 75% of petrochemical products, occupies an important position in the national economy. It has been regarded as a key indicator for determining the production level of the chemical industry. on August 3, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation announced a set of data at the 2023 National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Situation Analysis Meeting. At present, the domestic has been announced, under construction and proposed, planned for the "14th Five-Year Plan" to be put into production at the end of the ethylene production capacity of 34.75 million tons / year. Among them, this year and next year, there are 13.7 million tons / year of production. Another 21 million tons / year is planned to be put into production by the end of 2025. By then, China's ethylene production capacity or will face overcapacity.

At the same time, other basic chemical raw materials are also still in the peak of production capacity. The following is from the Guangzhou Chemical Industry Trade Center for basic chemical raw materials statistics.

(1) propylene capacity 2022 rapid domestic growth. A total of 5.74 million tons of new capacity / year, the total capacity to 56.68 million tons / year, an increase of 11.3%; production 43.338 million tons, an increase of 4.4%. It is expected that this year, China's propylene new capacity of 10.17 million tons / year, reaching 67.938 million tons / year, an increase of 19.9%.

(2) glycol 2022 China's new capacity of 5.8 million tons / year, exit capacity of 1.52 million tons / year, the total capacity of 250.37 million tons / year, an increase of 20.3%; production of 13.248 million tons, an increase of 113%, this year, a total of seven domestic projects, a total of 4.5 million tons / year of glycol centralized production of which 1.8 million tons of explosive ethylene glycol / year, the total capacity will be close to 30 million tons / year, an annual increase of up to 18%.

(3) paraxylene (PX) total capacity in 2022 for 34.67 million tons / year, an increase of 9.7%, production of 24.75 million tons, an increase of 14.6%. At present, the domestic in, proposed PX capacity of 12.7 million tons / year, is expected by the end of this year the total capacity will reach 42.37 million tons / year. The increase is more than 20%. With a large number of production capacity continues to be put into production, it is expected that by the end of 2025 China's PX production capacity will exceed 46 million tons / year, the self-sufficiency rate will be further increased. Package taking into account the overall supply of PX in Asia is sufficient, China's PX industry and neighboring countries will be more intense competition.

(4) refined terephthalic acid (PTA) 2022 new capacity of 7.35 million tons / year, in addition to the lapsed capacity of 3.39 million tons / year, the net increase in capacity of 3.96 million tons / year total capacity to 70.25 million tons / year, an increase of 6%. Production of 53.13 million tons, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year, the current domestic in, proposed PTA capacity of more than 36 million tons / year, this year is expected to add capacity of 8.25 million tons / year. Capacity utilization will further decline.

(5) polyethylene (PE) 2022 new capacity of 1.45 million tons / year. Reached 29.81 million tons / year, an increase of 5.1%, most of the new capacity in the first half of the production, capacity effectively released, production 253.16 million tons, an increase of 8.7%, the next five years, there are 33 planned and under construction projects, with a total capacity of 24.58 million tons / year, is expected to 2023, the domestic new polyethylene capacity of 5 million tons / year. By 2025 China's polyethylene production capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons / year, with the ability to meet domestic demand.

(6) Polypropylene (PP) 2022 new capacity of 2.8 million tons / year, reaching 34.96 million tons / year. Year-on-year growth of 8.7%; production of 29.655 million tons. Year-on-year growth of 1.3%. To 2025, there are 52 new, proposed projects, with a total capacity of 31.18 million tons / year of which 2023 has a total capacity of 9.55 million tons / year of 19 projects put into operation, the total capacity rose to 40 million tons / year.

(7) polyvinyl chloride capacity (PVC) 2022, a small increase of 970,000 electricity / year, total capacity of 2.8 million tons / year; production of 20.9 million tons, down 1.3% year-on-year. It is expected that this year China will have PVC new capacity of 1 million tons / year, an increase of 3.6%. Domestic demand will increase slightly to 20 million tons.

(8) polycarbonate (PC) 2022 in China, there are five PC new production projects, with a total capacity of 800,000 tons / year, excluding long-term shutdown projects, the total capacity of 3.2 million tons / year, an increase of 29.6%; production of 1.78 million tons, an increase of 36.9%. Capacity utilization rate increased by 13.9 percentage points year-on-year. Reached 55.6%. In the next five years there are proposed, 11 projects under construction. Total production Capacity of 1.68 million tons/year. It is expected that the new capacity of 300,000 tons / year in 2023, the total capacity will reach 3.5 million tons / year, with the growing market demand and downstream import substitution, capacity utilization rate is expected to further improve.

Wide space for the development of new chemical materials

Recently held 2023 China Petrochemical Industry High Quality Development Conference on new energy sub-forum disclosed the forecast data show that from 2022-2025, the average annual compound growth rate of battery shipments will reach 28.7%, the average annual compound growth rate of wind power installed capacity of 6.2%, the average annual compound growth rate of photovoltaic cell shipments reached 20.0%. High-speed growth of the new energy industry. Chemical materials to bring new development opportunities, new chemical materials in new energy vehicles, rational batteries, wind power, photovoltaic and other industries ushered in a new growth point.

Ethylene downstream products are highly relevant to the new energy industry. Ethylene as raw material can produce polycarbonate, lithium diaphragm, photovoltaic EVA (ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer), - olefin, POE (polyolefin elastomer) carbonate, DMC (dimethyl carbonate), ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) and other new materials products. According to statistics, there are 18 ethylene downstream products associated with new energy, new materials and other windfall industries, due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors and other new energy and new industries. The demand for new material products continues to rise.

At the beginning of July, China's new energy vehicle production totaled more than 20 million units. China has become the world's largest new energy vehicle market. The rapid development of the new energy automobile industry has stimulated strong demand for the power battery market.

In 2022, the national rational battery production reached 750 GW-hr, of which the power battery shipments reached 480 GW-hr, an increase of 110% over the previous year. The total output value of the industry reached 1.2 trillion yuan. As of June last year, the global market share of China's automotive power battery manufacturers was 56.6%; dozens of raw materials such as lithium, Jin, diamond, manganese, magnesium, neodymium, pin and other raw materials required for power batteries, more than 70% of which are initially processed by Chinese factories; lithium batteries, the four key materials - anode materials, anode materials, diaphragm, electrolyte are made of chemical materials, and the shipment volume of the battery in 2022 was 1.85 million tons, 1.4 million tons, 13 billion square meters and 8.5 billion square meters respectively, and the total value of the industry reached 1.0 trillion yuan. 1.4 million tons, 13 billion square meters, 850,000 tons, of which year-on-year growth of 69.7%, 79.5% 61.3% and 676%, respectively. China Chemical Economy and Technology Development Center Consulting and Evaluation Division Project Director Wang Junhuan said, it is expected that by 2025, lithium battery cathode materials, anode materials, isolation, electrolyte shipments will reach 3 million tons, 2.5 million tons, 30 billion square meters. 1.5 million tons, 2021-2025 CAGR were 15.6%, 19.5%, 23.1% and 14.3%.

Wind power, photovoltaic is the main force to achieve carbon neutrality, strong momentum. 2022, the national wind power new installed capacity of 37.6 GW. It is predicted that the new installed capacity of wind power will reach 40-50 GW in 2023-2025, accounting for about half of the global total. "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's wind power new planning to exceed 280 million kilowatts.

Reinforced fiber is one of the core materials of wind turbine blade. At present, glass fiber and carbon fiber are mainly used as reinforcing fiber materials for wind turbine blade composites. It is reported that in 2022, China's wind turbine blade field consumes about 19,000 tons of carbon fiber, and in 2025, it is expected to reach 25,000 tons.The average annual growth rate of China's demand for hard fibers in the field of wind turbine blades from 2022 to 2025 is 9.6%.

Epoxy resin is the main matrix resin material for manufacturing wind turbine blades, accounting for about 70% of the global wind turbine blade matrix material. "In 2022, China's wind turbine blade field consumes about 240,000 tons of epoxy resin, and in 2025, it is expected to reach more than 320,000 tons, and the average annual growth rate of China's demand for epoxy resin in the field of wind turbine blades from 2022 to 2025 is 10.6%." Wang Junhuan forecast.

Structural strands are mainly used for wind turbine blade upper and lower shell bonding, mainly epoxy, polyurethane and vinyl resin, etc., of which the epoxy resin glue is mainly. 2022, China's consumption of structural adhesive for wind power is about 23,000 tons, according to the introduction of the projected to 2025, the global wind turbine blade structural adhesive clearing volume of 55,000 -60,000 tons, China's consumption of structural adhesive for wind turbine blade is about 3.0 million tons.

The development of the photovoltaic industry, driven by rapid growth in the consumption of battery encapsulation adhesive film materials, its production technology development, capacity building has become one of the hotspots of the current chemical new materials industry concerns. "Fourteen-Five" period. Nearly 20% expected growth rate will pull the photovoltaic power generation industry related to the rapid development of new chemical materials industry.

According to analysis, in 2022, China's consumption of photovoltaic adhesive film about 3.5 billion square meters, 2025 is expected to reach 4.5 billion - 5 billion square meters. Common photovoltaic film mainly EVA film, POE film, POE is currently all dependent on imports. 2022, China's photovoltaic film consumes 1.45 million tons of EVA resin, POE resin 250,000 tons, is expected to 2025 photovoltaic EVA resin, photovoltaic POE tree demand will reach 1.5 million to 2 million tons, respectively, 280,000-350,000 electricity. Domestic photovoltaic adhesive film manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, each with the advantages of the three kinds of adhesive film POEEVAEPE, the future will show the coexistence of the situation.

It is worth noting that in 2022, China's photovoltaic modules consume about 1.24 million tons of EVA, accounting for 45.9% of the total consumption of EVA resin, becoming the fastest-growing species. It is expected that by 2030, the growth rate of EVA consumption will still reach more than 5%, when EVA consumption will reach about 4 million tons.

The above is the introduction of the new chemical materials market, if you want to continue to discuss with us, welcome to contact us!